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A pre-election budget is the biggest home-field advantage that a sitting government has. The Liberals intend to use it.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau will present a budget on Tuesday that will be a launching pad for new social initiatives that might be hallmarks of a second Justin Trudeau term, such as national pharmacare and mid-career skills retraining, and to offer measures to help first-time home buyers afford a house.

The theme won’t just be Liberal spending in an election year – although we can guess there will be plenty of that. A lot of this budget will be about launching initiatives that would really kick in, or have their biggest impact, in a year, or two, or three – after October’s election.

Mr. Morneau will deliver his fourth budget amid signs of slowing economic growth in Canada and around the world. But the public finances are fine: Revenues are rolling in and the deficit is expected to be billions smaller than the $18.1-billion forecast last fall. The Liberals consider that an opportunity for new spending.

The budget’s political message is a precursor of the Liberals’ 2019 campaign message: In uncertain economic times, Canadians can choose between Liberals who will put money into programs to ease middle-class anxieties and Conservatives who will cut budgets and services.

The choice that Liberals want voters to see pushes Jagmeet Singh’s NDP out of the conversation. It also makes a claim that the Conservatives will cut before Leader Andrew Scheer has even outlined his platform.

Still, there could be another Conservative who will help the Liberals paint that picture of contrast: Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

Mr. Ford’s government will issue its first full budget April 11, and it is the Progressive Conservatives’ opportunity to get cuts over with long before an election. The Ontario Tories are already making unpopular moves such as increasing class sizes in schools. Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals will certainly try to tie Mr. Scheer’s federal Tories to any Ontario cuts.

Obviously, Mr. Trudeau has troubles of his own. The SNC-Lavalin affair has chipped the Prime Minister’s already-worn new politics image eight months before an election. Expect the Liberals to redouble their sloganeering about the “middle-class and those working hard to join it.”

That means we can expect a budget full of measures that are supposed to reassure middle-class Canadians about their anxieties: paying for prescriptions; buying a first home; retraining to keep up with a changing labour market; and collecting a pension.

Mr. Morneau will start the move to national pharmacare – not with immediate prescription-drug coverage, but by funding the startup stages.

The government’s advisory council on pharmacare issued an interim report two weeks ago calling for the government to start building the “foundational elements” that will be needed – computer systems, a formulary of covered drugs and a national drug agency that could beat down drug prices with its buying power.

It seems likely the budget will include some new protections for federally regulated pensions – demanded by seniors’ groups.

And Mr. Morneau indicated last week that he will launch a new skills retraining benefit that would help mid-career individuals who are not unemployed take time off to upgrade their skills.

The Finance Minister has also hinted that he will put forward measures aimed at making it easier for young families to buy a first house. After previous budgets that pumped money into expanding social housing, this time the focus will be on middle-class home ownership, with a bid to expand the cohort of people buying first homes.

In short, the Liberal budget is aimed at soothing some middle-class anxieties.

But those other anxieties about Canada’s budgets, about deficits and business competitiveness, won’t get the same attention.

Mr. Morneau will argue that his deficits, less than 1 per cent of Canada’s GDP, are small – and most economists will agree. Markets and bond-raters don’t seem worried about Ottawa’s debt, either. And on a political level, the Liberals would be happy to hear Mr. Scheer’s Conservatives talking about deficits and the need to cut.

And Mr. Morneau already made his move to ease business concerns about competitiveness by announcing corporate tax cuts last fall.

It was a deliberate attempt to get that done in 2018, so he could talk about other things in an election year. Because this budget is supposed to give Canadians a glimpse of what the Liberals are promising for the next four years.

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